Representative Bart Stupack,(D-Mi), announced yesterday that, after 9 terms in Congress, he would not seek re-election in the Fall. He gave the usual reason for his decision not to run. He wants to spend more time with his family. He denies he has chosen not to run because of growing animosity and increasing opposition toward him in his district. Interestingly, Stupack is identified as one of the more conservative Democrats in the House. He was also instrumental in getting the Health Care Reform bill through Congress.
According to some recent predictions, Republicans are likely to pick up seven seats in the Senate, 20 seats in the House, and 3 governorships. Republicans are feeling better than they have in a long time regarding the Fall elections. According to the Rasmussen Reports, 48% of the public now believes that republicans are better on the economy than democrats. 45% think democrats are better. Senator Majority Leader Harry Ried is now viewed unfavorably by by 56% of voters in his state. Rep. Nancy Pelosi is viewed unfavorably by 64% in her district. Last month, 63% of voters polled said they were dissatisfied with Congress. Congress is overwhelmingly controlled by Democrats. If you consider that unhappy voters are more likely to turn out than contented voters, things look even less promising for Democrats in the Fall.
Interestingly, President Obama has so far only appeared at one rally in support of Democratic candidates. Perhaps this is due to the growing public discontent over massive spending, increased government control, and the failure of the administration to turn the economy around. It is just as likely that this is due to public unease at the many takeovers and bailouts made by the government over the last two years. All are programs closely associated with Obama. No doubt Obama's herculean efforts to get his health care plan through Congress also plays a large part in the growing dissatisfaction with Washington and the reluctance of many candidates to appear with him. Only 42% of voters approve of the new health care plan. 53% disapprove. Whatever the case, Obama is not quite the political asset he once was.
The hope that Obama inspired when he was elected is starting to turn into gloom under the swelling deficits, stagnant economy, and the heavy hand of democrats in Congress. Despite the trillion plus dollars spent by democrats in Washington to "stimulate" the economy, the economy is still struggling. Little progress has been made on difficult foreign policy issues. True, Obama has won a Nobel Peace Prize and just signed a new deal with Russia limiting nuclear weapons, but Iran and North Korea remain defiant. The troubles in Iraq and Afghanistan persist. No progress has been made in the Middle East. And China remains an enigmatic and growing rival in Asia and is beginning to cast glances around the world.
Obama has had two years to validate the hope he inspired and bring about the change he pledged. He has not done so. The hope he offered has not been transformed into reality but has become apprehension. Partisan rancor is high. The change Obama promised has disappeared into a swamp of backroom deals, bribes, and political maneuvering. The transparency pledged by Obama after his election has become opaque.
The way things are going, the Republicans will have a lot to run on in the next election. The Democrats will have to run on what they have done: and what they have done is not very popular. Despite the bold promises of the Obama administration and democrats in Washington, little has changed. If anything, things have gotten worse. It has turned out that Obama is not the savior many had hoped he would be. He is simply a politician, albeit a very good one. The Democrats have had firm control in Washington for two years. They will not be able to blame Republicans, though they certainly will try. Obama has little to help democrats with at this point except his charm. That still might be enough.
From the early polls, it appears that Obama and the democrats have only 6 more months to change the world. After that, they will have to negotiate.
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