A Necessary Provocation

On Saturday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was given a gift by the leader of the Hezbollah while visiting Lebanon. The gift was an Israeli rifle in a felt lined box. The rifle was captured during Hezbollah's war with Israel in 2006. Ahmadinejad later went on to give a speech in a town near the Israeli border where he told a crowd that "the world should know that the Zionists will perish." Both Israel and the U.S. condemned Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon as an "unnecessary provocation".

Yesterday, Israel announced that it would end its temporary restrictions on building in East Jerusalem and resume construction on contested land seized during the 1967 Middle East War in defiance of U.S. and international calls not to. The move outraged Palestinian leaders and was quickly criticized as a blow to the peace process. Washington is disappointed. Israel is determined. The Palestinians are furious. The move was seen by many as a provocation.

Iran's threats are a danger to Israel's existence. Israel's actions are a threat to Palestine's existence. Although one cannot equate the call for Israel's destruction with a resumption of building on contested land, both moves are provocative and threats to the peace process. A major difference is that while Iran is blustering, Israel is bulldozing.

Ahmadinejad is known for his incendiary rhetoric. Israel is known for its resolve. The threat Iran poses to Israel is serious but not immanent: nor will it be for some time, if ever. His statement poses no real threat in the West Bank to the peace process. The resumption of building in East Jerusalem is concrete and immanent. It is a very dangerous threat to the peace process. Every new Israeli settlement, every Palestinian evicted and every Palestinian house destroyed strengthens the Hezbollah and their allies in Iran and makes it more difficult for Palestinian leaders to keep talking. At times it seems that Israel's idea of peace is Palestinian submission.

The moves by both countries were likely made with an eye towards placating hard line elements. Ahmadinejad's comments were quickly condemned as an "unnecessary provocation" by leaders in Israel and the U.S. Israel's actions, on the other hand, were described by Washington merely as a "disappointment".

In a sense, both actions were necessary. For Ahmadinejad to retain power, he must placate the hard right in Iran and the hard right demands a tough stance on Israel. Furthermore, it is very much to his advantage to keep domestic attention focused outward on Israel, and by extension the U.S. and off domestic issues. It gives him more latitude in his attempts to keep his grip on power. For Netanyahu and his government, the decision to resume building in East Jerusalem is a necessary provocation if they want to remain in power. Netanyahu needs the Israeli right if he is to stay in power and the Israeli right wants to build settlements. Both policies do much to increase tension in the region.

I suspect that Ahmadinejad is privately delighted by the news in Israel. He loses nothing when Palestinian land is seized and houses are destroyed, but he gains much. A contented, prosperous Palestine would be a great blow. Hard liners in the region need conflict and tension if they are to survive. Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon was far from unnecessary.