Every Silver Lining Has a Dark Cloud

There is troubling news from Egypt. According to a recent Pew Center poll, the majority of Egyptians favor ending the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel that was signed 32 years ago. When the treaty was signed between the two nations it was heralded as a mile stone. It showed that there could be peace between Arabs and Israelis. Now, after the fall of the Egyptian government, that treaty could be in peril.

Democracy in the Middle East has long been a goal of U.S. policy. For years the U.S. has prodded nations in the region to move towards more open and representative government. In the last several months the U.S. has become almost giddy at the prospect of finally achieving its political goals in the region. But, as the recent Pew Center poll has revealed, the move towards democracy in the Middle East is not without its perils.

Over the last several decades, negotiations with the Arab world were simple. We only needed to reach agreement with the leader of a nation. Once an agreement was reached, the leader of that nation could be relied upon to observe that agreement whether the people of that nation approved or not. Those days are quickly coming to and end. Those days will be missed.

The Pew Center poll revealed many troubling issues on the horizon. While the poll revealed that the vast majority of Egyptians, 77% according to the poll, are happy Mubarak is gone, the joy on the part of Egyptians is not simply due to personal dislike. A key element of that dislike was Mubarak's foreign policy.

During his tenure, Mubarak became an important and reliable partner for the U.S. in the region. However, only 32% of Egyptians approve of U.S. policy in the Middle East. Only 20% of Egyptians view the U.S. favorably. 43% of Egyptians asked want cooler ties with the U.S. against only 15% who want closer relations. The majority of Egyptians are angered over Israel's treatment of Palestinians. It gets worse. Another poll revealed that 37% of Egyptians had a "very favorable" view of the Muslim Brotherhood, a hard line Islamic party and that 62% of the people felt that the law should more strictly follow the Koran. As if that weren't enough, over half of those polled feel that the 1979 peace agreement signed between Israel and Egypt should be annulled.

What should also be disturbing from the U.S. point of view is that a large majority of Egyptians are satisfied with their religious leaders. Even though religious fundamentalists in the nation are still on the margins, that can change very quickly. Unlike the U.S., Muslims tend to adhere to their religion and listen to their religious leaders. It cannot be assumed that Egyptians will abandon their mosques if their mullahs start to tilt toward the right. Muslims are not Episcopalians.

Before the uprising it didn't matter much how ordinary Egyptians felt about Israel and U.S. policy in the region. Soon it will. Both Israel and the U.S. are going to have to keep that in mind. According to the poll, most people in Egypt are looking forward to a new government. The question is whether we should.