What if the Rebels Don't Win?

Rebels in Libya have begun to turn things around in their fight against government troops. After weeks of stalled fighting it was reported that they had gained ground and made progress in their struggle to break the siege of Misrata by capturing an airport and pushing government troops, aka Gaddafi's troops, from the western suburbs. Rebel victories have been few and far between since the rebellion began, much to NATO's dismay.

Western support of the rebels has been increasing since fighting first broke out. After the rebellion began, the West quickly imposed sanctions, more sanctions that is, on the Libyan government. When the increased sanctions didn't work, a "no fly" zone was implemented and the Libyan air force was quickly grounded. When the "no fly" zone didn't succeed in tipping the balance, combat air support was provided. Libyan tanks, artillery, and mechanized forces were soon hobbled. Since March 31st, NATO has carried out more than 2,400 air strikes, including some aimed directly at Gaddafi himself. Still, the rebellion is foundering.

The fighting has been going on for nearly three months since riots first broke out in Benghazi. The U.S. and its allies are determined to help the rebellion succeed. Indeed the only reason the fighting has lasted this long is because of NATO air support and military assistance. Given the level of support being provided, if the rebellion doesn't succeed, the West will suffer a major black eye. Dictators in the region and around the world would take heart in knowing that even in the face of Western support, a rebellion can be beaten.

The U.S. and NATO have committed themselves to the struggle. They have expanded their mission from protecting rebel forces to providing combat air support and interdiction. NATO has struck at government troops, supply routes, and logistics and command centers. It has been hitting targets of its own choosing for some time in cities like Tripoli. It has even targeted Gaddafi himself. Because it has invested itself heavily in the success of the rebellion, Western military prestige is on the line.

If the rebels manage to win, it will not be due to the legitimacy of their cause or their military prowess. It will be due to Western military power. Because of that, any new government in Libya will carry a stigma. A rebel defeat on the other hand would be a NATO defeat. After a string of impressive air campaigns by the West, its perfect record is in jeopardy. If one country can withstand a NATO onslaught, others can. The West is determined that an example not be set.

The West's insistence on levelling the playing field in Libya and elsewhere is disingenuous. Wars, civil or otherwise, are not supposed to be fair fights. They never have been.