Hope and Fear

Things are not going according to plan for President Obama. While he has succeeded in getting many of his ambitious proposals enacted, namely Health Care Reform, his success is not reflected in the polls. Things are going poorly in fact. So poorly that some Republicans anticipate gaining control of the House this Fall.

In April of last year, Obama's approval rating stood at an intoxicating 68%. Few presidents have ever achieved such numbers. In May of this year, his approval rating had dropped to a sobering 51%. More significantly, his disapproval ratings ratings rose from 20% to 40% over that same time period. CBS polls put Obama's rating at 38% approving and 43% disapproving. Harris Polls place the numbers at 49% and 45% respectively. Depending on the poll, Obama's approval varies from the mid 40s to the low 50s. According to Gallup, Obama's approval rating has been hovering around 47% for the last three months. Whichever poll you choose, it is still a long way from 68%.

What possibly could have happened? By almost any standard, Obama's presidency has been a success. Every major policy initiated by the president has been approved. Virtually every major problem in the U.S. has been addressed, from the economy and education to obesity. Trillions of dollars have been spent to bail out and stimulate the economy. What has gone wrong? That depends on who you ask.

Republicans would simply point out that familiarity breeds contempt and people have become familiar with Obama and his policies and his policies haven't worked. Democrats would claim that nothing has gone wrong and that things are improving, albeit more slowly than they had anticipated. They blame republicans, counter revolutionary elements, and logistics. Republicans, they claim, have been doing their best to obstruct and undermine the administration. Some are doing it out of principal the White House admits, but most are doing it out of spite. We are told that republicans and their counter revolutionary henchmen are trying to drag America back into the dark ages, which are usually identified as the years between 2000 and 2008 AD.

They blame logistics by citing the difficulty of spending a trillion dollars. They also argue that an economy the size of the U.S.'s takes time to turn around and that the problems laid on the lap of the administration were years in the making and cannot be expected to be fixed in a few short years, despite the promises made in 2008. A trillion dollars can only do so much. We are told that once the changes made by the administration kick in, the economy will be humming again: just as once the administration's overhaul of the health care industry takes hold, people will appreciate what Obama has done for them. As for the debt, we are assured the administration has a plan. Even though many predict we are rapidly approaching a cliff, the administration tells us not to worry about it. Once everything else is under control and the economy rebounds, the debt will virtually take care of itself. We can just grow out of it. In the mean time, given the souring mood of the electorate, democrats prefer the subject not come up.

Patience is called for by the administration and its supporters. Time is needed for the policies enacted by administration to take root. Once the revolution finally bears fruit, things will be better in the U.S. for everyone. People will be happier, healthier, and wealthier than they have ever been: unless the counterrevolutionaries take power in the next election.

While the numbers may vary, polls show that republicans have good reason to be optimistic for the fall. If democrats are not able to garner the hope of the electorate, they will need to shift public attention away from how bad things are, to how bad things will be if the republicans take over. If they can do so, they have a good chance in the fall. The republicans have it easier. Many people only have to open their mail or read the newspaper to find out how bad things are. Some only have to get out of bed. The trick for the republicans is to persuade people that they can fix things and not make them worse.

It will be difficult for democrats to run on what they have done in 2010. What they have done is not very popular. Neither can they run on what they will do if they achieve power. They have achieved power. Obama ran on hope in 2008. In 2010, many democrats will run on fear.